Post by BitterFlashback on Jul 13, 2014 18:01:42 GMT -5
damn i got duped into thinking gotti would actually still try to make his framing work
Oh, we're on a new page. I'd best keep Nyr from feeling too comfortable.
Jul 8, 2014 18:05:17 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
There are dozens and dozens and dozens of people who signed up and never played at all, or played for a couple of hours and couldn't figure out how to auto-map and gave up, and kids whose moms caught them mudsexing and took their computer away, etc. etc.Jul 8, 2014 18:05:17 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
So, unless you have names and e-mail addresses and account names of every single person who has left Arm, and can tell us how long they were active members, and define "active" so we can understand your context, and then tell us how long ago they stopped playing, Anaiah, your data has no context and is therefore meaningless.Jul 8, 2014 20:03:21 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You still haven't defined "veteran." Until you do that, and until you can check to make sure that your statement is true using that definition (by finding out WHO left, and whether or not they fit the criteria), your concluding statement has no merit and your numbers have no significance.Jul 8, 2014 21:04:36 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
I know they can have significance. But Anaiah made the claim that it is, specifically, veterans who are leaving.Jul 8, 2014 21:04:36 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
There've been several veterans who have actually /returned/ recently, who left awhile back. They won't be counted as "new accounts" because they're not new at all.Jul 9, 2014 5:51:02 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Bitter has already shown us that it suggests a gradual UPgrade curve. This is actually pretty significant, compared to the mudding world in general. The mud genre is fairly static, on a very gradual downgrade curve. Lots more muds, but not lots more players. The existing players are more spread out than they used to be. When the newer muds die, their players either revert to their previous muds, look for new ones, or stop mudding altogether. Arm actually attracts new players, albeit at a painfully low rate.Anaiah: I still think it's important to know what defines a "new player" before you can make a serious claim here.
Jul 9, 2014 15:37:37 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Anaiah: I still think it's important to know what defines a "new player" before you can make a serious claim here. It definitely looks like people drop off over time, but it's not a particularly swift drop.
Jul 9, 2014 15:37:37 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
And, judging by the posts from /actual/ veteran players posting on the GDB, it looks like some veterans are returning to the game, thus skewing the numbers of "new" accounts to "dead" accounts.So we have no reason to believe the following regarding new accounts:
1) All listed new accounts are continuing on to create characters and play the actual game.
2) All listed new accounts who do the above continue to play and do not log into their character once, get bored and quit.
3) All listed new accounts belong to a legitimate new user - None of these are the dozen or so dummy accounts I, and others, have no doubt made over the past few years for various reasons.
4) All listed new accounts belong to a legitimate new user - They aren't accounts created because naruto1999 forgot his password before he finished character creation, and they aren't veterans looking for a fresh start.
Alternately, the second post was an unsupported point, while the first post was just Argument From Personal Incredulity followed by 4 numbered counts of Appeal To Probability. Reader's choice.
Why, again, should I take the information provided and believe that there is player attrition taking place?
Your data is only as good as its source. Just the manner in which it was collected could seriously skew the numbers one way or another.
For all we know, Nyr is fudging the numbers and things are worse than they appear here. Hell, because he wants to get voting up they could even be better.
my entire post, only 5 lines of which used a reductio ad absurdum comparison to his logic to demonstrate its faultiness
Jul 10, 2014 20:33:08 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
June is 4 weeks and 2 days long, and this year it started on a Sunday. Arm data counts weeks from Sunday through Saturday, so the last week of June, technically, doesn't count. It's only 2 days long; the other 5 days are July.Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Also just because you can make an account without connecting to the MUD, doesn't mean you can have a character submitted and approved the same day. Or even the same week.Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Someone who got a new account last Saturday, might not have had an approved character to play until this Tuesday. That's two different weeks, and two different sets of data being counted, on just one player's account.Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
The data is interesting but it really honestly and truly has very little actual meaning, beyond the parameters of the data itself.Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
100 people with new accounts and 150 players logged in means nothing more than 100 people with new accounts and 150 players logged in.Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
It doesn't mean anything else, because you don't know what goes into that data.Jul 11, 2014 13:12:35 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You say "the game has gained a net 77 players." You also use a negative to claim that the game is losing players. Either the game has gained players, or it hasn't. It can't be both, in a non-parallel universe.Jul 11, 2014 18:10:33 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
I am flat out saying that more than half the people who play currently did not play four years ago.Jul 11, 2014 18:10:33 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Point being: there are more players now than there were four years ago.Jul 11, 2014 18:10:33 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Clearly you have no skill in prob/stat.Jul 11, 2014 18:35:02 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Your data doesn't prove anything.Jul 11, 2014 18:35:02 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
I don't have to prove you wrongJul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
The importance of this data is - non-existent.Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Compared to other muds (which is the only thing you -can- compare it to), we're doing very very well. So - if anything, the data proves that we're doing well.Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
The importance of this data is - non-existent. So - if anything, the data proves that we're doing well. Compared to other muds (which is the only thing you -can- compare it to), we're doing very very well. Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
It doesn't prove that Nyr is an assholeJul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
it doesn't prove that players are leaving in drovesJul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
it doesn't prove that Armageddon is headed for the shitheap of dead muds.Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
It doesn't prove any of the doom and gloom Anaiah (and you, and several others on this forum) harp about.Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
In reference to the posit that "Arm sucks" the data proves nothing.Jul 11, 2014 19:05:47 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Edited to note: Nyr might very well be an asshole. Arm surely could be headed for the shit-heap. There might in fact be tons of doom and gloom. But that data doesn't prove it.Jul 12, 2014 11:20:20 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
In 1997, AOL switched from hourly online fees for playing games, to flat-rate. At that point, Gemstone's player base climbed to around 10,000. Ten thousand accounts, with a max of 2000 logged in simutaneously. Two thousand players all logged in at the same time, as their max. Prior to that, their capacity was only 499, and prior to that, the game would often crash if there were more than 50 logged in or even attempting to log in.Fast forward to today, and on TopMudsites, they've managed to get 216 votes from July 1 to today, July 12.
Jul 12, 2014 11:20:20 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Talking with someone who is still playing there, I'm told there's rarely more than 500 accounts logged in at any given moment, even during festival time, and at least 25% of those 500 are multi-accounts. On average, GS has around 300 accounts logged in at any given moment, with at least 25% of those being multi-accounts. Just like you get, or just like your source (Nyr) gets.Jul 12, 2014 11:24:36 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Yeah see - they log into the game and type WHO. And they get actual counts. Just like you get, or just like your source (Nyr) gets. And that's where I found out how many people currently log in.Jul 12, 2014 11:20:20 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
They're losing at a MUCH faster rate than Armageddon has ever lost, if you want to go there.Jul 12, 2014 11:50:46 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
So then you are claiming that it's reasonable, and sane, and logical, and sensible, to compare Armageddon's "loss" of players, with Gemstone's loss of players. With Gemstone achieving a real actual number of loss, rather than just crunched numbers (10,000 during their heyday, vs. somewhat less than that presently, and 2,000 accounts logged in simutaneously during their heyday, vs. approximately 500 accounts logged in simutaneously)?Jul 12, 2014 12:13:29 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Gemstone is a COMMERCIAL game. It is the giant among commercial text games in the world. They profit monthly, their parent company, Simutronics, is a multi-million-dollar commercial entity of which Gemstone is their flagship operation.You can't compare that to anything with regards to Armageddon, without looking like a total looney-tune.
Jul 12, 2014 20:42:08 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
there has been a steady 200-300 players logging in every month for the past year. That's pretty impressive for a free mud, especially one that has been around, and has been free, since the 1990's.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
It means there's no advertising budget to attract more players, and no investment into creating a big playerbase from the very beginning. That's something commercial games can do, that free games can't do.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
It is impressive that ANY free mud can have a steady playerbase of 200-300 people logging in at least once a month.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
They're not "failing to keep" 800 players. You don't know why 800 players are not playing Arm.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
There'd be nothing Arm could do to "keep" those players, therefore, they didn't "lose" them. They never captured them in the first place.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Then there are players who simply moved on in life. Marriage, graduation from school, career, children, finding new hobbies. One would *hope* that Armageddon couldn't do anything to convince people to not do those thingsJul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You're injecting some weird kind of expectation of macabre, possibly unhealthy loyalty to a text game that just really shouldn't exist.Jul 12, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Your use of the phrase "failing to keep" is the disturbing part, because you are assuming that Armageddon had an obligation to keep 800 players.Jul 13, 2014 16:05:50 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
And again, you are jumping to conclusions about what your data means.It is POSSIBLE that all those people are saying "fuck this game." It is possible. It's possible there's a whole lot of things going on, including the "fuck arm" sentiment. Your data doesn't show any of the reasons WHY those statistics are what they are. "Fuck Arm" is a reason, for a statistic, not a conclusion of that statistic.
Jul 13, 2014 17:07:35 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Jul 12, 2014 11:20:20 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
Talking with someone who is still playing there, I'm told there's rarely more than 500 accounts logged in at any given moment, even during festival time, and at least 25% of those 500 are multi-accounts. On average, GS has around 300 accounts logged in at any given moment, with at least 25% of those being multi-accounts.Jul 12, 2014 11:50:46 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
So then you are claiming that it's reasonable, and sane, and logical, and sensible, to compare Armageddon's "loss" of players, with Gemstone's loss of players. With Gemstone achieving a real actual number of loss, rather than just crunched numbers (10,000 during their heyday, vs. somewhat less than that presently, and 2,000 accounts logged in simutaneously during their heyday, vs. approximately 500 accounts logged in simutaneously)?Jul 12, 2014 20:42:08 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
there has been a steady 200-300 players logging in every month for the past year. That's pretty impressive for a free mud, especially one that has been around, and has been free, since the 1990's.Jul 13, 2014 17:07:35 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You say Armageddon is failing to keep members, then show proof that the reason the members are leaving is due to Armageddon's failureJul 13, 2014 17:24:49 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You say Arm sucks because numbers.Jul 13, 2014 17:24:49 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
You're still wrong about your claim being proved by your numbers.Jul 13, 2014 17:45:02 GMT -5 @ghaati said:
So by what authority do you claim we have a requirement to not only prove our claims, but do so to your satisfaction?