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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2014 20:33:08 GMT -5
June is 4 weeks and 2 days long, and this year it started on a Sunday. Arm data counts weeks from Sunday through Saturday, so the last week of June, technically, doesn't count. It's only 2 days long; the other 5 days are July.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2014 20:44:52 GMT -5
Also just because you can make an account without connecting to the MUD, doesn't mean you can have a character submitted and approved the same day. Or even the same week. There's lots of people who are brand new to the game who clearly didn't read the docs. Stands to reason their backgrounds probably sucked and had to be edited a few times before the characters were finally approved.
Someone who got a new account last Saturday, might not have had an approved character to play until this Tuesday. That's two different weeks, and two different sets of data being counted, on just one player's account.
The data is interesting but it really honestly and truly has very little actual meaning, beyond the parameters of the data itself. 100 people with new accounts and 150 players logged in means nothing more than 100 people with new accounts and 150 players logged in. It doesn't mean anything else, because you don't know what goes into that data.
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Post by fakeymcfakerton on Jul 10, 2014 22:55:15 GMT -5
Adding your data up for weeks 23 - 26 (i.e. all full weeks in June) would indicate there were 167 new players who started playing in June. That seems to match pretty well with the 184 number of all new accounts that Nyr reported since we're missing 2 days of data in June by adding the weekly totals. And again, Nyr doesn't say those 184 people actually played, just that they made an account, then realized they had to read documentation in order to create a character, and most of them probably just fucked off right there. Where are you guys getting this from anyhow? I didnt see anyhting about two days being missing in your post (possibly something not copied in?) But it makes sense given what he said. I think Anaiah must have gone back to all the Weekly Update pages and copied the numbers off them. Here's a sample link: www.armageddon.org/updates/index.php?week=27&year=2014Of note the week spans June 30 to July 6, but we have no way to know how many logins happened on June 30 vs. the rest of that week. The same happened to June 1. So getting numbers "for June" is difficult. Meanwhile, staff on the GDB report numbers monthly. If someone with large amounts of time wanted to go back through all the monthly player numbers posts the staff have posted and grab how many new accounts they reported actually logged in, we would at least know how many "new people"* tried Armageddon that month. This still poses issues though, since we have the problem of the data in different formats; we know unique logins per week, but only new player logins per month. You could probably make some estimates and approximations in order to turn new players per month into a fairly accurate measurement of new players per week, but it would definitely take some work. Even after that, we would still have some issues trying to calculate turnover, though, since we have no way of knowing whether veterans are leaving and new players are replacing them, or if few new players stick around and vets keep playing month over month.
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Post by BitterFlashback on Jul 11, 2014 12:40:46 GMT -5
Also just because you can make an account without connecting to the MUD, doesn't mean you can have a character submitted and approved the same day. Or even the same week. ... Someone who got a new account last Saturday, might not have had an approved character to play until this Tuesday. That's two different weeks, and two different sets of data being counted, on just one player's account. This is true. But it averages out overtime. what weve been doing is making estimates while looking for a trend. Even with the numbers you guys wanted our results would be close. Probably very accurate. But not exact.
Where are you guys getting this from anyhow? I didnt see anyhting about two days being missing in your post (possibly something not copied in?) But it makes sense given what he said. I think Anaiah must have gone back to all the Weekly Update pages and copied the numbers off them. Here's a sample link: www.armageddon.org/updates/index.php?week=27&year=2014Thanks. I may go through these if i get a few hours with nothing to do. unless someone else beats me to it. Either way Ill do the data entry and dump the results as CSVs in any order that's requested. (Output is easy.) Even after that, we would still have some issues trying to calculate turnover, though, since we have no way of knowing whether veterans are leaving and new players are replacing them, or if few new players stick around and vets keep playing month over month. Yeah, the churn rate is an estimate. And i don't believe we can determine veteran loss at all from the numbers Nyr put out. Becase there's no lifespan announcement. That said, churn rate does tell us a lot about the sticker shock new players are experiencing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 13:08:49 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 13:12:35 GMT -5
Just ignore the last post, it wouldn't let me preview it, or delete the nested quote. Here's what I'm trying to post:
BitterWhatever posted: The idea the game isnt losing players is absurd. there are people on this forum who came here after quitting. Overal the game has gained a net 77 players if the numbers Nyr compiled were correct. Out of over 9000.
My response:
You are proving right there, that your data doesn't support your conclusion. You say "the game has gained a net 77 players." You also use a negative to claim that the game is losing players. Either the game has gained players, or it hasn't. It can't be both, in a non-parallel universe.
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Post by BitterFlashback on Jul 11, 2014 13:30:09 GMT -5
Just ignore the last post, it wouldn't let me preview it, or delete the nested quote. Here's what I'm trying to post: BitterWhatever posted: The idea the game isnt losing players is absurd. there are people on this forum who came here after quitting. Overal the game has gained a net 77 players if the numbers Nyr compiled were correct. Out of over 9000. My response: You are proving right there, that your data doesn't support your conclusion. You say "the game has gained a net 77 players." You also use a negative to claim that the game is losing players. Either the game has gained players, or it hasn't. It can't be both, in a non-parallel universe. The game is losing players. Because it is gaining players and not retaining all of them. It is also gaining players. It has gained slightly more than it has lost. hence my use of the word "net". i hope that clears up my meaning. I was disagreeing with the idea Arm isn't losing people but acknowledging that it is gaining slightly more than it is losing over all. It was a complicated response to an oversimplified comment because I was getting into the technical details.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 14:30:49 GMT -5
Just ignore the last post, it wouldn't let me preview it, or delete the nested quote. Here's what I'm trying to post: BitterWhatever posted: The idea the game isnt losing players is absurd. there are people on this forum who came here after quitting. Overal the game has gained a net 77 players if the numbers Nyr compiled were correct. Out of over 9000. My response: You are proving right there, that your data doesn't support your conclusion. You say "the game has gained a net 77 players." You also use a negative to claim that the game is losing players. Either the game has gained players, or it hasn't. It can't be both, in a non-parallel universe. It's actually lost players as a whole when compared to a similar point in 2010. There are more unique accounts logged in, but that is largely in part due to new players, as you can only log in from a new account 1 time, and the numbers for that have grown from about 18/week to about 70/week, with a rate 'returning' (not 'new') players at about 240/week in 2010, and about 210 now, so that's down 30 from what it was in returning accounts, but up in new account logins. This is also why even though the game registers slightly more accounts logged in (20 or so on average), once you take away the 70 or so new players accounts, you can see the loss. Now factor that in on top of keeping 77 new players. That's actually a turnover of about half the playerbase.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 14:32:30 GMT -5
Actually that's exactly what I did. I used the stats from the game's weekly update for weeks 1-52 for all years included.
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Post by fakeymcfakerton on Jul 11, 2014 16:25:03 GMT -5
It's actually lost players as a whole when compared to a similar point in 2010. There are more unique accounts logged in, but that is largely in part due to new players, as you can only log in from a new account 1 time Full stop. You have no presented no data about the number of new accounts who are actually logging in. You cannot compare the numbers of unique logins to the number of new accounts created and derive conclusions about player retention. You certainly cannot assume, as you seem to be, that each new account created each week actually gets a character into the game in order to be considered a player. The rest of the conclusions in your post derived from this faulty comparison are invalid. It seems like you may be trying to claim that older players have left the game, while new players have replaced them, and therefore Armageddon is "losing players" because some people who played no longer do. This is undoubtedly true, but irrelevant, unless for some reason you believe no one should ever stop playing Armageddon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 17:42:35 GMT -5
I'm not assuming that. You are assuming that. I never said that. I said that the numbers are for the total accounts logged in for the week and the total number of new accounts made that week, and since Armageddon itself advertises those numbers, I would assume that accurate or no, those are at least the numbers they want to project. You are reading anything beyond that into what I'm saying. I never said characters playing, I said new accounts logged in versus accounts logged in that are not new. And guess what? I have numbers for that. Literally hundreds. That come straight from Armageddon. I can see how your comparison might be faulty, but that's not the comparison that I am making. I am comparing numbers of people playing the game to what they used to be at a given period. I am comparing numbers of new accounts to what they used to be at a given period. I am taking averages, comparing, and contrasting. I fail to see what is so difficult to comprehend about that.
And no, I am not trying to claim that, I am flat out saying that half the people who played four years ago do not currently. And yes, if you are a rock star with thousands of fans, and half that fanbase decides they like country, just because you find thousands of 'new' fans does not mean you are not losing fans. And yes, it is indeed relevant, as look at how much of the goddamn game depends on veterans or experienced players: from magickers to karma roles to sponsored roles to special races, more than half the game relies on seasoned players. I'd say that's a little bit goddamn relevant at least. Feel free to disagree.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 18:10:33 GMT -5
I am flat out saying that half the people who played four years ago do not currently. I am flat out saying that more than half the people who play currently did not play four years ago. Point being: there are more players now than there were four years ago. That's what most of us are saying, and what you continue to argue against with your numbers. If you want to crunch data, find Gimfilasette. Clearly you have no skill in prob/stat.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 18:23:13 GMT -5
I'm not saying you're losing players in overall numbers. Jesus tapdancing christ. Take what I say for what I say. There are less repeat logins than there were four years ago. There are more new account logins than there were four years ago. There are so many more, in fact, that it skews logins up about 15-20, but since it's 20-30 less people who are making REPEAT logins, no, you are not. You are gaining initial accounts logged in. You are actually down 30 from the number of people logging in at this time in 2010, if you are talking about people who actually log in more than once (aka numbers that are not a new account logging in). On average. Yes, your total logins is higher on average. Because the 1st-time logins have tripled. If the first time logins were reduced to what they were in 2010, you would see the dip in the playerbase. And you YOURSELF are the one saying these one time logins don't constitute new players actually logging in to play a character. Except when they do so you can continue trying to make a point and refute me without ever using your own data to prove mine wrong.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 18:35:02 GMT -5
Your data doesn't prove anything. I don't have to prove you wrong, there's nothing on your side to prove.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 18:51:47 GMT -5
So... 270-60 is 210 (average returning player count) 250-10 is 240 (average returning player count)
Which one is higher (bearing in mind that the new players are taken from the total logins)?
No, that proves nothing. 240 is not higher than 210. Not even a little.
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